Two veteran pitchers take the mound for today's match up in Toronto as R.A. Dickey looks to continue his streak of quality starts as he takes on A.J. Burnett who looks to continue his great year as he posts an ERA nearly under 2. Head to head Dickey has 7 of 10 quality starts against the Phillies over his last 10 while Burnett has given up 5 or more ER in 3 of last 4 starts in Toronto. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are a combined 12-28 off him with 5 HR. The Blue Jays offense is also starting to click scoring 5 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games compared with just 3 for the Phillies. The Phillies bullpen has not been very good and I expect Burnett to struggle on 4 days rest on the road facing the Blue Jays who are ranked 3rd in OPS vs. RHP this season which is the best offense Burnett has faced. Burnett did not go past 6 innings in the majority of his road starts on 4 days rest last year and now he has to face 9 real hitters being in an AL park where he struggled for years with the Yankees.
R.A. Dickey is a streaky pitcher and when his control is right he will dominate and almost always give you a chance to win. The biggest issues that Dickey runs into when he struggles is control and the Phillies are 22nd in BB's and they only have 5 BB's in 103 AB against him. Dickey who is walking 5 guys per 9 on the year has reduced those numbers significantly at home with a 2.42 BB/9. A.J. Burnett will have the more challenging task and his raw numbers suggest he's been lucky to be where he is stat wise as his xFIP 3.87, and tERA 4.60 suggest. Blue Jays are a run better vs. RHP ranking 3rd in OPS compared to the Phillies 25th and are the hotter team offensively right now while the bullpen is in Toronto's advantage as they are fresher right now and their ERA is about a run lower in H/A splits. Once again I'll roll with the home team in an interleague battle as Toronto is 10-4 in their last 14 home games in interleague play.
